Weekly: Look at the Results, Not the Crystal Ball
Weekly 16 2025
We’ve barely recovered from earnings season, and the first reports for this year’s first quarter are already starting to roll in. As always, forecasts are flying around at lightning speed—coming from analysts, investors, and companies themselves. But if there’s one lesson I want to pass on to investors, it’s this: focus on the actual results, not the projections.
Why?
Because forecasts are little more than educated guesses, and sometimes not even that. CEOs and CFOs are expected to speak confidently about the future. But who can do that with a straight face in a world where geopolitics, interest rate expectations, consumer behavior, and trade tariffs can shift month to month?
The truth is: they can’t. The future is, by definition, uncertain, and in the words of Warren Buffett:
“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”
What will Trump do next with import tariffs? How will China respond? And how do those tensions influence the sentiment of households and businesses? Spending patterns are the key to economic growth, and they’re tightly linked to confidence. And confidence, right now, is fragile.
Uncertainty = More Saving = Less Growth
From experience, we know that in times of uncertainty, the natural reflex for consumers is to save rather than spend. You see the same thing during market downturns; fear makes people hold on to cash. But every euro that isn’t spent slows down the economy. And that affects company revenues and profits too.
How big will the impact be? And more importantly: how long will it last? Unpredictable. And that’s exactly the point. The future is always uncertain, but in times like these, that uncertainty gets magnified. It makes it especially risky to blindly trust the predictions of analysts or the companies themselves.
So Why All the Focus on Forecasts?
Because we’re looking for something to hold onto, investors crave certainty. Analysts want to offer clarity. The media wants headlines. And so the market becomes obsessed with guidance, while the real answers often lie in the past.
Not to get nostalgic, but to analyze: how resilient is a company really? Does it have a solid balance sheet? Is it maintaining its margins despite headwinds? Is its market share growing? Is it generating cash, or are the profits just accounting figures?
Results Are the Anchor, Forecasts Are the Fog
Understanding the numbers is crucial; that’s why I’m writing a Value Investing 101. It’s not the analysts’ interpretations that matter, but the raw data: revenue, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength.
As a value investor, you look through the noise. You don’t focus on the next quarter, but on the structural strength of a business. You want companies that can weather storms, and ideally come out stronger on the other side.
That way, it’s no longer a blind guess. It’s an assessment based on facts, grounded in the past. I’ve often said that (value) investing isn’t an exact science. But it is rational: you use numbers, historical context, and common sense.
We Might Be in the Eye of the Storm
Even though the markets seem calmer, my gut tells me we might be in the eye of the storm. What if the second wave is still coming? What if consumers take their foot off the gas? What if investors realize that AI isn’t an instant cash machine?
The real skill isn’t in predicting when the storm will hit. The real skill is in holding positions today in companies that can weather such a storm.
That’s exactly what sets value investing apart from speculation: you look at value, not price. At fundamental strength, not hype. At business performance, not price targets.
This week
Tuesday brought lesson 9 of our intro series on value investing: Valuing Companies
It was a hefty one.
Since there wasn’t much major news to report on our companies, no separate articles were published. You’ll find the short news below.