Nice analysis. A quick question for my own understanding here:
When you say that Nvidia would need to grow at 12% for an investor to match the returns from T-bills over the next decade how does this assumption work? Specifically, are you assuming that at the end of the decade Nvidia’s growth stops?
Interesting! I completely agree it’s hard to estimate that far in the future but it seems unlikely that the largest Nvidia could ever be is whatever 10 years of compounding at 12% creates (or at least I can only imagine that’s the trade for investors). Cool way of looking at it though. Really enjoyed the analysis.
Nice analysis. A quick question for my own understanding here:
When you say that Nvidia would need to grow at 12% for an investor to match the returns from T-bills over the next decade how does this assumption work? Specifically, are you assuming that at the end of the decade Nvidia’s growth stops?
Interesting! I completely agree it’s hard to estimate that far in the future but it seems unlikely that the largest Nvidia could ever be is whatever 10 years of compounding at 12% creates (or at least I can only imagine that’s the trade for investors). Cool way of looking at it though. Really enjoyed the analysis.
Hi Henry,
Thank you.
Indeed it is indeed 12% CAGR over the next 10 years. After that I return the growth to around inflation levels 2-3%.
Predicting that far in the future and assigning growths after that would make anything possible.