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Nice analysis. A quick question for my own understanding here:

When you say that Nvidia would need to grow at 12% for an investor to match the returns from T-bills over the next decade how does this assumption work? Specifically, are you assuming that at the end of the decade Nvidia’s growth stops?

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Interesting! I completely agree it’s hard to estimate that far in the future but it seems unlikely that the largest Nvidia could ever be is whatever 10 years of compounding at 12% creates (or at least I can only imagine that’s the trade for investors). Cool way of looking at it though. Really enjoyed the analysis.

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Hi Henry,

Thank you.

Indeed it is indeed 12% CAGR over the next 10 years. After that I return the growth to around inflation levels 2-3%.

Predicting that far in the future and assigning growths after that would make anything possible.

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