Starting with Fresh Determination
Doubler portfolio overview + weekly 6 2025
A shorter introduction this week, as I’m in Switzerland for ValueX, an exclusive event organized by renowned value investor Guy Spier.
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not just 100% convinced but 1,000% sure that our portfolio—filled with solid, deeply undervalued companies—will perform exceptionally well in the long run. But I have to admit, it feels great to finally see things moving in the right direction. That gives me fresh determination.
January wiped out the weak months of October and November. The slight negative result is mainly due to the hefty transaction costs I impose on this portfolio. Without those costs, we’d already be in positive territory.
Of course, one good month isn’t a reason to declare victory. The goal is a doubling, and to get there, we first need to cross zero. My gut feeling tells me this isn’t the definitive turning point just yet—we’ll likely see more intense volatility first.
Doubler Portfolio Overview Januari 2025
For those not yet familiar with our Doubler Portfolio, read more about it here.
January: Is Europe Back in the Game?
January kicked off with volatility, and I suspect that will be the theme for the year. There’s an old market saying: "As January goes, so goes the year." Let’s hope that also applies to our returns.
I looked back for fun, and over the past five years, this saying has held true for my portfolio.
As I wrote in last week’s market overview, European stock markets rose faster than U.S. markets in January. It’s no surprise that our portfolio didn’t increase at the same pace—we’re still holding 35% cash and primarily investing in smaller stocks. If there’s a rotation towards Europe, it will first target the larger index stocks. In the U.S., smaller stocks also remain cheap, especially compared to S&P 500 stocks.
Portfolio Movements
We saw significant swings within our portfolio. Our latest addition dropped sharply after an unremarkable trading update and ended the month down 25% (see Summary below).
On the other hand, three stocks rose by more than 20% in January, and several gained more than 10%, often following a positive trading update. One stock, however, surged 27.5% without any notable news—after falling 10% late last year for no clear reason. These kinds of price swings create opportunities, and I plan to take better advantage of them going forward.
Current Portfolio Status
Right now, 68% of the portfolio is invested. This increase from 65% to 68% is partly due to the rise in stock values, as we only made one purchase in January.
The stock we reintroduced in January rose a bit too quickly. I’m not one to chase prices—I wait patiently or find a new opportunity.
I also chose not to increase any existing positions. Some of our initial purchases are far enough behind us, but as I mentioned earlier, I sometimes follow my gut feeling. A few extra weeks of waiting won’t hurt.
In short, we made just one trade in January: we bought Bellway, a homebuilder we’ve been watching for a while. It briefly dipped below our buy limit, and we took the opportunity. Since then, it has already risen.
Now, let’s take a closer look at how our holdings performed.