Portfolio overview June YTD+10,24%
Weekly 27 2025
This Week
On Tuesday, the final lesson in our Introduction to Value Investing series was published: Lesson 19 – What comes next.
The past week's big news — for Belgians at least — was the introduction of the capital gains tax.
As a Belgian, and with around 80% of readers being Belgian as well, I want to take a moment to reflect on that.
Afterwards, we’ll look at our portfolio results at the end of June. Then we’ll briefly discuss some updates on Bonava, Sofina, HAL, Stellantis, Tessenderlo, and Nextensa.
And of course, we’ll continue with the stocks you selected. This time the vote was clear: Umicore, VGP, and Jungheinrich came out on top.
Next week (or the week after), I’ll also take a look at AMG, Recticel, Van de Velde, and AAK AB.
Now that our introduction to value investing is complete, I’m taking a break from the free Tuesday emails over the summer months. That way, the focus during these already busy (outside of work) months can stay entirely on the companies rather than more general commentary.
Capital Gains Tax
Non-Belgian readers may be wondering why a 10% capital gains tax is causing such a stir. Many countries have some form of capital gains tax — even the United States, a top destination for investors. Though they do have options like retirement accounts where interim gains aren’t taxed. Unfortunately, our politicians didn’t think that far ahead.
Tax systems are hard to compare, and when you factor in social benefits, I’m not sure I’d want to switch. What is clear, though, is this: with a government take of 52% in 2024, Belgium is already massively overtaxed. The fact that they still can’t make ends meet with such a take is both shocking and infuriating. And let’s be honest, those social services aren’t that impressive. But what do you expect from a country where a website costs €3.3 million and gets scrapped a year later for being a “flop”?
It’s not like investors haven’t been paying anything up until now, or that there was no “wealth tax.” We already pay a 0.35% tax on every stock transaction — on the full amount, regardless of profit or loss. Then there’s the very high withholding tax on dividends, plus the previous “wealth tax”: 0.15% on securities accounts over €1 million.
Tirade (feel free to skip)
The capital gains tax is a mess and will be counterproductive. Hopefully that becomes clear in time, and they don’t try to save face by hiking the rate even further.
It’s also been deliberately made complex, so there’s always some sort of argument to fall back on — even if those arguments often make no sense. Take the €10,000 exemption, for example. That was designed so the socialist base could say, “I don’t know anyone who makes €10,000 in gains from stocks.”
Well, I do — plenty of them. Ordinary working people and retirees, not the “1%” they love to vilify.
As an investor, that makes me angry — though I could accept it if it were offset elsewhere. But so far, there’s no sign of that. How they expect to enforce this now, after the tiny Vooruit party has already claimed their “trophy,” is beyond me. What more does this left-wing party have to gain by implementing right-wing reforms? Their strategy now seems to be to block everything for four years, then brag about it. A guaranteed win with their voters.
For entrepreneurs, it’s downright infuriating. You spend years building a business — and as any entrepreneur knows, that comes with tons of stress, sacrifice, and putting your life on hold. And when you finally succeed, despite constant tax pressure and government obstruction, you have to fork over another 10% when selling your business. Why?
This is bound to result in countless legal challenges. Who determines what counts as capital gain? Sure, there’s a rule of thumb — but surprise, it favors the government. So you're left with no choice but to pay for a professional valuation, which just adds more pointless costs.
Adjusting Your Investment Strategy?
There are lots of angry and disappointed reactions from investors, and the newspapers are now full of theories about how to avoid the capital gains tax, or how to best use the €10,000 exemption.
But what I’ve seen so far are mostly theoretical setups that aren’t very useful to the average stock investor. Making decisions for tax reasons is often a bad strategy: what you save in one area, you may end up paying back — double — somewhere else or later on.
Personally, I’ll be minimally affected by the capital gains tax. All my money is in the fund (only for well-informed investors — definition here) that I manage together with Joël Schols. So I only pay capital gains tax when I sell my shares in the fund. All transactions within the fund are unaffected by the new capital gains tax or the transaction tax, and we also benefit from a reduced withholding tax.
If that weren’t the case, the new tax still wouldn’t change my approach in the first eleven months of the year. I would continue investing just like before. Buy and sell decisions should come from the companies, the investments, and the overall portfolio — not the tax framework.
The Exemption — A Bad Joke
December is the month to take stock and work through the tax puzzle. Which gains did you realize, and which losses can be deducted? Are you over the €10,000 exemption or not? If you are, take a good look at your portfolio: are there stocks with losses that you’ve lost faith in? Stocks you’d “sell on a bounce”? In the US, this is called tax-loss harvesting.
Selling stocks just to “lock in” that €10,000 exemption and buying them back later? I wouldn’t recommend it. You’ll quickly lose a big chunk to transaction tax and fees — together at least 0.8% of the total transaction, not just the profit. That already eats away a big part of your potential €1,000 tax savings.
If you’re planning to sell a stock in December and you’re already over the €10,000 limit, then it might make sense to delay the sale into the new year — that way, you defer the tax by a year. But of course, that comes with the risk that the stock price drops in the meantime — maybe even more than the tax you were trying to avoid.
That’s another reason not to sell purely for the exemption. You might end up paying €1,000 more when buying back in because the price went up.
On top of that, banks are expected to withhold the tax at the source, after which you’ll need to settle the exemption and any losses in your tax return. In other words: you’re giving the government an interest-free loan. And money that isn’t invested in the meantime earns nothing. All in all, that exemption is really just one big joke.
I also wonder what happens for those who invest via a foreign broker. Will everything be handled via the tax return? If so, Belgian brokers are clearly at a disadvantage. There are also rumors about an opt-out system, where you don’t have to have the tax withheld at the source but instead declare it yourself on your tax return. If that option becomes available, we should jump on it right away.
And it could always get worse — in the Netherlands, they’re now fighting plans to tax unrealized gains. That’s even more absurd.
Doubler Portfolio Overview June 2025
For those not yet familiar with our Doubler Portfolio, read more about it here.
June was a relatively volatile month. At the end of May, the portfolio was up +8.3% since the start of the year. It briefly climbed to +10.87%, dropped back to +7.78%, rose again to +10.99%, and finally closed out June at +10.24%.
Since the portfolio’s inception, we now stand at +7.7% — a result I’m happy with, especially considering we’re only 72% invested. The remaining 28% in cash gives us flexibility to act on opportunities as they arise.
We didn’t make a single transaction in June, aside from collecting a few dividends. That was a conscious decision. I was briefly tempted to buy during the small dip, but it quickly passed.
Although the cash position is currently dragging down performance, I think it’s wise to take things a bit slower right now. Screaming bargains are rare — or they’re in sectors we’re already active in. As I mentioned when we integrated the holding companies, I also plan to invest a bit more selectively going forward.
June Recap
June was relatively volatile, as noted above. But if you didn’t check during the month, you wouldn’t really notice — the monthly summary shows little of that movement. Only two stocks moved more than 10%, far fewer than in any previous month this year.
What’s more, we’re seeing a clear upward trend. Not a single stock dropped more than 10%, while two gained more than 10%:
X-Fab: +30.84%
Trigano: +14.56%
Is this the calm before the storm? On July 9, the tariff pause introduced by Trump is set to expire. Will they reach a deal before then? Will Trump extend it again, or will he finally realize how pointless it is?
Will we see a so-called “campground rally,” where people follow the markets more closely while on vacation and bored? I’m curious. Not that it affects our strategy in the slightest.